Christmas Forecast 2024

As retail footfall stabilises after several challenging years, the sector has shown remarkable resilience, benefiting from a boost driven by sporting and music events. This resilience, however, is mainly attributed to the retailers’ ability to diversify and adapt to evolving consumer preferences. Brands such as Hotel Chocolat have expanded their presence from high streets to retail parks, responding to shifting footfall trends.

Despite online shopping accounting for only 25% of total retail sales (according to the ONS), there is still strong demand for physical retail. As businesses strategise for 2025, having the right data to inform their next move will be crucial for driving growth and capturing market opportunities.

The Golden Quarter Outlook

As measured by GFK’s Consumer Confidence Index each month, consumer confidence has continued to improve this year, especially from June to August which coincides with a change in government. Overall, people’s sentiments around the general economic situation has improved alongside confidence about personal finances, boosted further by improving inflation figures – down to 2.2% from 4% at the start of the year. These factors suggest that retail stores and destinations can expect a positive Golden Quarter.

A key trend continuing to shape consumer behaviour is the shift towards experience-based gifts, replacing traditional tangible gifts. This trend has been borne out of the pandemic, as reported by Retail Connections, with 58% of people feeling they had missed the experience of being ‘out’. Retail stores and destinations can expect this trend to influence spending this Golden Quarter as more consumers may prioritise experiential gifts during the festive season.

Retail Footfall Trends for 2024

Overall, footfall in retail parks has remained steady throughout 2024 however high streets and shopping centres are likely to see more of an uptick the closer we get to the end of the year which aligns with historical trends. High streets are expected to finish 2024, on average, 0.2% higher overall compared to 2023, retail parks around 1% higher however shopping centres are forecasted to experience a slight decline averaging 1% despite a strong end to the year. This is primarily due to the shift in Easter holidays which impacted April’s performance.

Brochure

MRI OnLocation UK Monthly Commentary – September 2024

September Slump: Retail footfall declines amid widespread floods, return to office, and falling consumer confidence Each month, MRI OnLocation provides insights into the performance of retail destinations across the UK. September typically marks a re…

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