How Cinnaire is overcoming adversity in the face of COVID-19

As the COVID-19 situation has unfolded over the past few months, businesses across the real estate industry have been faced with the need to swiftly respond to a rapidly evolving set of circumstances. Given the face-to-face nature of the industry, many organizations struggled to adopt work-from-home policies while still effectively serving their clients, constituents and stakeholders.

Cinnaire is an MRI client that moved quickly to figure out what a “new normal” would look like amidst this crisis. The company planned its response long before much of the country went into lockdown, taking all necessary measures to protect its employees, clients and partners. Their response is an example of how communication, collaboration, and community can help an organization rise to the challenge that faces us all at this time.

An introduction to Cinnaire

Cinnaire is a full-service financial partner that supports affordable housing communities and economic development initiatives through creative loans, investments and best-in-class services. The company has an unwavering belief that all people deserve the opportunities provided by living in healthy communities, and as a part of their work, they match exceptional community investment opportunities with community-focused investors.

As a user of MRI Software’s Investment Central for more than 15 years, Cinnaire has been able to centralize their data and save significant time for fund managers. Boosting operational efficiency while maintaining data integrity has been crucial to Cinnaire’s ability to scale.

Business continuity in the face of change

When the pandemic first started affecting institutions and daily lives across the globe with shutdowns and closures, uncertainty spread fast. As many were trying to figure out what the next day would look like, the executive team at Cinnaire formed action plans to ensure business continuity and to stay focused on raising equity and closing deals. After reaching out to investors and assuring them that they’d be in constant communication, Cinnaire learned that investors were still looking for deals, despite the slowdown caused by the pandemic. The company has begun adjusting its financial expectations for the upcoming year but continues to stay the course.

Responding to adversity with the 3 Cs

In addition to external communications with investors and shareholders, Cinnaire has also taken steps to ensure the safety and continued productivity of their internal staff. Throughout the duration of this situation, Cinnaire has dealt with the challenges using a three-pronged approach.

1. Communication

During the week of March 9, identified by many as the tipping point of the pandemic’s effect on the US, the executive team of Cinnaire made the decision that all staff should prepare to work from home for the foreseeable future. Already equipped with the necessary technology and innovations that would allow their workforce to continue operating remotely, such as video conferencing built into their daily schedules, Cinnaire staff had several days to collect any remaining hardware to perform their duties at maximum capacity in their own homes.

The executive team also began taking the necessary steps to assure staff that even though they would no longer be in one centralized location, they would remain in constant contact about high-level decisions and other strategic communications. In short, Cinnaire made sure that their staff knew they’d be kept in the loop. In practice, these communications came in the form of a long-running and consistently updated Frequently Asked Questions document.

2. Collaboration

The Cinnaire executive team identified six high level questions critical to understanding the current industry environment and drafted a memo to keep staff updated. This was a fluid document that enabled leadership to address concerns surrounding the question, “How do these circumstances affect our goals?” and it was updated on a weekly basis. Instead of simply compiling this FAQ and sending it out to staff once, the executive team instructed each team leader to walk through the FAQ updates with their respective teams and report back with any results or issues.

Essentially, Cinnaire set up a clear chain of communication and feedback across the organization. The executive team would update the FAQ and team leaders would help the members of their teams understand the document and put it into practice in their week-to-week operations. If a team member had a concern or other valuable feedback, that feedback would travel back up the chain, from the team leader to the executive team. The feedback gleaned from the previous week’s updates would then be included in the next update of the FAQ. This clear workflow stream helped put staff at ease and has also helped them understand their place in the current situation.

3. Community

Lastly, Cinnaire has encouraged a sense of community and fellowship outside the confines of industry-related matters. Over the past several weeks, teams have been partaking in virtual happy hours in their own homes, encouraging only “non-work-related” conversation. They’ve also been using Yammer to establish a communal break room of sorts, where the marketing team creates regular challenges for the staff. These activities help keep staff engaged in a time when everyone largely finds themselves in a similar situation – stuck at home, but working to make the best of things.

These are uncertain times for organizations across the real estate industry. However, responding with continued work towards shared goals, communication between team members and leadership, and a resolve that we can get through this will help businesses across the industry overcome the challenges.

The impact of COVID-19 on commercial real estate: Part 2 – the future for the office workspace

The impact the COVID-19 virus is having on the commercial real estate sector is immense. We recently looked at how the pandemic is specifically affecting retail landlords and tenants, as they struggle in the face of self-isolation, social distancing and regional lockdowns.

In this, the second installment in this two-part series, we look at how the sudden change in work patterns is affecting the use of office space and the impact that will have on corporate property owners, operators and occupiers going forward. The blog examines what they need to understand to more effectively deal with the fallout from the worst global health crisis we have seen in the modern age.

New modes of working

Social distancing and remote working are being encouraged by businesses around the world, and for many it has become corporate policy. However, there are still a number of companies where remote working isn’t possible, for a variety of reasons, and the short-term action occupiers or landlords – whomever is responsible – need to take is making sure the regularity and intensity of office cleaning is increased and ensuring there are a number of sanitizing stations available to workers. Additionally, if any workers or visitors infected with coronavirus have been in the building then offices need to be closed down in order for a deep clean to take place.

For the companies where staff are working remotely, the current situation is likely already prompting them to rethink office space in the long run, questioning how they have previously utilized and occupied office space. Many modern offices are now open plan to help boost collaboration and encourage workers to socialize more, but it’s a double-edged sword because it means employees who are working closely together are more likely to transmit viruses between one another.

Assessing the new future for the workspace

As long as the COVID-19 crisis is having its current impact, the use of space and proximity of workers will have to be assessed and addressed in offices and other workplaces where people are still required to come in. Using data and technology to do this in the quickest, most accurate, effective way will be critical to organizations that need to move fast. On the facilities management side, having the technology to register and track which visitors are in a building when and for how long may also be critical to managing the number of people at a particular site at any one time and tracing any contact if that were to become necessary.

In the near term, landlords need to be prepared for tenants looking to break leases early, seek reduced rents or longer payments as the ongoing impact of coronavirus becomes clear. Many businesses are facing the possibility of having to reduce their workforces during the crisis, so landlords should look to work with these tenants to find alternative solutions that bridge the gap during the crisis.

Looking further forward, we are likely to see increased demand for things that will make open plan office environments healthier, like fans, filters, and dehumidifiers – and spaces that ensure people have enough social distance even in better times. We are also likely to see the trend toward working from home become a stronger consideration in workspace planning, as companies choose to provide more flexibility in this area on a longer-term basis. This may require greater flexibility within offices and other workspaces – and in the leases that occupiers seek moving forward.

Working together to ensure the future of commercial real estate

The COVID-19 pandemic is presenting the commercial real estate industry with unprecedented challenges and the best way to overcome them is to put in place plans for a worst-case scenario and hope it doesn’t come to that. Another key will be using the right technology to regularly create clear and consistent updates for investors, partners, employees and other stakeholders, which will help ensure their cooperation as businesses adapt to the rapidly changing conditions they are facing and prepare for a less turbulent future.

To come out on the other side of the coronavirus crisis as strong as or stronger than ever, landlords and property managers – whether dealing with retail properties or offices – need to work closely with tenants to find creative solutions; leveraging technology to understand your business situation in terms of leases and assets will be critical. The industry was already starting to recognize the importance of this type of collaboration, and the drive to survive the COVID-19 crisis might just push cooperation to a whole new level – and that can only be a good thing at the moment.

The impact of COVID-19 on commercial real estate: Part 1 – the future of retail

COVID-19 is dominating the news agenda, and while the immediate effects are clear, the long-term impact is still very much an unknown – and that’s giving everyone in the commercial real estate industry reason to consider both the near- and long-term future.

While under the current circumstance it’s difficult to predict what the commercial real estate market will be like next week, never mind in six months’ time, there are steps investors, owners and corporate occupiers can take to prepare for likely eventualities. With the right planning and technology support they can help protect themselves and, just as vitally, their industry from some of the impact from this rapidly evolving health crisis.

In this, the first of two-part series looking at the impact of the coronavirus, we look at how the uncertainty caused by the pandemic is affecting a retail sector already in crisis – and what retail landlords and occupiers need to keep in mind as they navigate the accompanying business challenges.

The surge in home shopping

It’s no secret that retailers in shopping malls and main street alike have been facing intense pressure in recent years. Online only retailers, like Amazon, have leveraged the ease and convenience of technology to empower consumers to browse and purchase goods without having to leave their house. Already we are seeing ramping up to meet new home shopping demand spurred by the crisis, with the company hiring thousands in markets such as the UK and up to 100,000 in the US.

Coronavirus, which has spread across the world at unprecedented speed, is an additional challenge that retailers do not need. The need for “social distancing” and in some cases “self-isolation” is not only reinforcing shop-at-home habits but is spurring some people who’ve so far resisted online buying to try it – if only out of caution. What’s more, major brands such as Apple, Calvin Klein, Nike and Zara have closed stores worldwide temporarily.

The immediate impact of this is a significant loss of revenues, which in the longer term could lead to some staff being laid off and some physical stores being closed permanently, leaving more empty shop space. These are also popular brands that draw consumers to shopping malls and busy commercial centers in towns and cities, so those retailers that don’t close may suffer even more when popular neighbors close shop.

Taking action to reinforce retail on the ground

For now, retail occupiers will need to take stock of their situations – part of which will be assessing their leases to understand their options and restrictions. Are there clauses for breaks or rent holidays or tying rents to turnover they might need to be aware of and leverage? They may also need to take a deeper dive into their data to assess where they can manage with fewer staff, where they might close stores temporarily for now and where they might want to focus efforts when we eventually come out of the current crisis.

And for their part, what can landlords do? Those that want to keep their tenants in place will need to work with retailers to come up with creative solutions that will allow tenants to maintain operations and survive the current crisis. Landlord also have to understand their own property and lease portfolios and be aware of which clauses tenants might invoke and what they as owners and operators need to do to ensure they comply with all their obligations.

Flexibility on the landlord’s side may be crucial, as retailers will likely be looking for lower rents and longer payment periods to help offset the long-term effects of coronavirus. However, landlords could negotiate arrangements that allow them to recoup some lost rent when the economy rebounds — this can be through an agreement to peg rent to a percentage of revenue or a profit-based approach.

No matter what retail property owners, operators and occupiers do on their own, the situation is likely to require unprecedented cooperation between all parties to ensure a they recover to see a brighter future – as all sides want to see their sites survive and eventually thrive again. Working together to ensure this is really the only way forward at this point.

Accelerated adoption of technology and potential impacts on real estate

Change comes slowly, almost imperceptibly, until it doesn’t.

Now, in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, is a moment when substantial change has been thrust upon us, without much warning, without much preparation, and so broadly that it is not hyperbolic to say that it is happening on a global scale.

The changes that many of us are adapting to are driven by social distancing practices, stay-at-home decrees and shelter-in-place orders:

  • Business: only essential business and employees are working in normal locations with others either working from home or out of work.
  • Healthcare: hospitals are eliminating elective procedures and driving more routine visits to tele-medicine.
  • Retail: essential brick-and-mortar retail remains, non-essential retail has closed, and online sales are skyrocketing.
  • Dining: restaurants have shifted to delivery and take-out or have closed.
  • Entertainment: movies whose theatrical runs were cut short were released for streaming while still “in theaters,” and all other live entertainment, including the lights on Broadway, are currently suspended. Some artists have live streamed events to fans.
  • Sports: NASCAR held a virtual race driven by actual drivers while all other live events have been suspended, delayed or cancelled, including the 2020 Summer Olympics.
  • Education: K-12 schools are closed, having moved online along with most colleges and universities.

Be thankful that it is 2020 and that we are able to move many things online so quickly.

The networking technology of the internet was invented in the early 1980s, the World Wide Web construct came in 1990, Netscape in 1994 and Internet Explorer in 1995. In the early 1990s, we were all using dial-up connections at speeds of 9.6 kbps. By 2000, broadband was emerging, at 244 kbps, a 25x increase in bandwidth. By 2010, we had 10 Mbps in bandwidth, a 40x improvement. And today, in 2020, broadband services are commonly available at speeds of 400Mbps (another 40x improvement) with Google Fiber delivering 1000Mbps (100x over 2010).

In 30 years, bandwidth has increased by at least 40,000x and, while noticeable, it was not an event – it was a gradual change over time. And because of this relatively slow change, we can now leverage greater bandwidth to enable the forced and rapid change in our collective behaviors.

The various applications of technology that we are suddenly using were not just invented. Instead, we have been slowly adopting them on our own terms, as our budgets would allow and where markets demanded. Now, suddenly, we are all in the deep end together, figuring it out and making it work, accelerating adoption.

As a result of this forced change, of the sudden movement of our collective cheese, we are getting over the fear of change. We’re having to adapt quickly, and as we do, some of the changes we now make under duress will stay with us and they will impact commercial real estate.

Business and Healthcare

A substantial part of the non-essential workforce has been working from home, full-time, for a week or more, including those in G&A functions, financial services, software and other knowledge worker parts of the economy. No doubt you’ve seen the screen captures of group meetings that look like a digital Brady Bunch reunion. If you think about it, it is quite amazing that so many people have been able to transition to telecommuting so quickly. Because it has gone well, it may have substantial impacts in the future. Considerations include:

  • Will enterprises, bullish on newfound success with telecommuting, begin to reduce needed office space?
  • Will apartment demand change, requiring more dedicated work-from-home spaces and better sound proofing?
  • Will the urban migration of the millennials shift back to the suburbs so they can live with less expense and be closer to family? This would reshape supply and demand for apartments and also impact the broad array of retail, dining and other service establishments.
  • Will enterprises further leverage digital collaboration in place of physical meetings and conferences, taking back travel time to be more productive? Clearly, the hospitality and travel sectors would feel continued impact.
  • Will our healthcare “supply chain” be reworked, changing the location and focus of facilities and requiring re-working of facilities?

As an aside, a reduction in people commuting will have a direct and positive impact on the environment, will drive demand for oil lower, resulting in better quality of life by transitioning the daily commute into more home time.

Retail, Dining, Entertainment and Sports

Since Amazon was founded in 1994, there has been great upheaval in retail. Big box retailers have had to adapt or die. Stalwarts, like Sears and K-Mart, cling to life. As retailers have changed, so have the operators of retail centers and malls. There has been a concerted shift away from simply shops and a food court (the quintessential 80’s mall) to a mix of goods and services inclusive of entertainment and a wide array of dining venues.

The diversification of retail was the right move for owners and operators to evolve. Unfortunately, there are few sectors immune from the current state of things, and retail, dining and entertainment are greatly impacted.

Live entertainment and sporting events are a critical cultural component globally, and many retailers, especially restaurants and bars, are in close proximity to theaters, stadiums, arenas and other facilities.

What might their future hold:

  • Will “stay at home” directives lead to more home cooking, and a reduction in overall dining out volume? Also, does this spell an end for Blue Apron and other meal prep services? Will apartments need more well-equipped kitchens to differentiate?
  • Will drive through and carry out become a new habit? Will some restaurants move to take out or delivery only, limiting their space requirements to only kitchens and pick-up windows? Will landlords scramble to better enable drive through and pick-up for their tenants and customers?
  • Will live streaming of events, potentially in a pay-per-view format, find a place in entertainment, leaving venues more vacant and decreasing event venue traffic?
  • Will production companies increase simultaneous releases of feature films for streaming and in theaters? Will theaters have to do more than provide popcorn to differentiate?
  • Will virtual physical fitness devices and classes accelerate their take of market share from traditional gyms and studios?

Education

Another amazingly fast transition has been the shift from classroom-based learning to online learning. The good news is that the generation of children of current school age have been born with a device in their hands. Notionally, they have been training for this their whole life. Plus, as we know, kids are resilient. Even with success, however, it is unlikely that kids don’t go back to school, as parents’ work schedules are reliant on the K-12 infrastructure as a form of childcare in addition to foundational educational advancement.

College students, also sent home to complete the semester, pose a different situation if they find success in remote learning, raising the following questions:

  • Will colleges and universities increase their use of remote learning, especially for foundational classes, keeping control of the curriculum, and their brand, while increasing access at discounted rates?
  • Will college students and parents, faced with increasing costs and mounting debt, seek higher quality/lower cost educational alternatives, shunning junior colleges, for remote programs from brand name institutions?
  • What kind of impact will a change in delivery of higher education have on student housing operators as well as the other cottage industries that rely on the seasonal influx of population to college campuses?

Technology is the unheralded hero of the moment. We have quickly adapted to a rapid change in our day-to-day life and we are dependent on digital connectivity to maintain a sense of personal engagement and productivity. What is yet to be seen is the degree to which our new behaviors will remain after things return to a recognizably new normal, and how that new normal will drive change in real estate.

COVID-19 and social distancing in the UK residential sector

The impact of the coronavirus pandemic is significant and varied across the real estate industry. For organisations operating in the residential space there are a number of challenges. Businesses need to consider the safety and well-being of their employees, of customers they interact with face-to-face, plus the residents, leaseholders, agents, landlords, property managers or other stakeholders they serve in their day-to-day activities. And that’s not to mention efforts to ensure their business continues as close to normal as possible.

Given the current social distancing guidelines from the government, and with more and more companies putting work-from-home policies into action for their teams, those involved in managing residential property will naturally see an increase in their reliance on digital solutions, communication and interaction. Indeed, the residential sector has seen significant investment in technology in recent years, and organisations that have been driving innovation and putting proptech at the heart of their operations should now expect to rely on that software to help them reduce disruption and achieve a degree of business continuity.

Here are some areas to consider, and how your tech can help you as you try to navigate the obstacles and uncertainty the COVID-19 outbreak has introduced:

Customer service

In the midst of so much disruption, is it even possible to maintain expected levels of service without disruption for your customers? Thanks to the tech available today, the answer might actually be yes. It’s highly likely that you’re using digital platforms for mass email, SMS and other forms of direct message – and you’ll certainly be looking at how you can expand that to fill potential gaps. Going further, automation will be key. For example, you can put programmes in place to deliver initial replies to queries, either offering information or providing a first-response before a member of your team goes deeper. This sort of reassurance could prove invaluable in such an uncertain climate. Where software allows (and you should have various options here) you can also look to digitalise processes for your customers. Common options are payments, maintenance requests and document sharing/signing – all of which can be done, end-to-end, with no need for in-person or even telephone interaction.

Customer interaction

With additional focus placed on quickly and effectively responding to queries, it’s important you don’t forget the need to provide customers with a proactive, clear and consistent stream of messages, keeping them fully updated with the latest news and developments. Of course, key communications on the subject of COVID-19 will be front and centre, particularly for those in self-isolation – but so will be sharing information from the wider community and society of which your stakeholders are a part. Of course, this would be paramount were you to find yourself dealing with a case or cases of coronavirus directly. If you use a resident portal, push its capabilities and ensure your customers understand it’s the place to go for updates such as information on planned maintenance, new guidelines on use of common areas, measures being taken to protect residents in buildings, or even the impact of a local lockdown were it to reach that stage. Alternatively, or as well, use your software to push content out through other channels such as your website. Crucially, you should also utilise your solutions to record your broadcasts and interactions so you have complete records of conversations for audit and potential compliance purposes.

Remote working

SaaS is the standard option when it comes to modern software, and it’s not a new trend. The fact that companies and individuals are transitioning to work from home, and are able to do so in such great numbers so quickly, is testament to how far the industry has come in terms of cloud technology. This flexibility is essential, but it goes deeper. There has never been a more crucial time to be fully aware of the mobile capabilities within your solutions. Can everyone in your business log in remotely? Do you have portals you can utilise? Are there integrated apps you can lean on to make remote working even easier? Understanding your full digital offering, and ensuring staff are fully trained and capable to maximise it, may help keep you ahead of the game and achieve full business continuity as the next few months unfold.

Strategic decision-making

These are largely unprecedented times. Across all industries and sectors, businesses will be feeling the effects of the measures introduced to tackle coronavirus – and real estate is certainly going to be impacted. But, directors and managers can be somewhat reassured by the abundance of data and information available today, and with your tech you have the ways and means to undertake quick and accurate analysis to help ensure you remain agile. As you deem necessary, your software should allow you to monitor metrics in real-time or at whatever frequency suits your approach, giving you the opportunity to spot and address performance problems – whether operational, financial or both. This is always important, but certainly something you can leverage in the current climate to help you navigate the challenges ahead.

These are some general thoughts aimed at encouraging some deeper thinking around how software can be relied upon to help you maintain ‘business as usual’ in this wholly unusual period. The list is not exhaustive, and you should definitely consider and interrogate the full capabilities of your digital products in all areas of your company.

And, don’t forget, you can check back on our dedicated page for the latest updates on the MRI Software response to the pandemic.

COVID-19 and multifamily: Potential impacts

Clearly, COVID-19, aka the coronavirus, is top of mind these days. The World Health Organization has designated it as a pandemic, the number of infected individuals continues to grow, and decisions increase by the day. So, what might we expect for the multifamily real estate industry?

Before diving in, it is important to note that the degree of the impact will grow with the duration of the crisis. If things resolve in a matter of weeks, the impact will be much smaller, and we’ll likely avoid a prolonged dampening of economic activity.

Student and senior housing: Early impacts

As it stands, many colleges and universities have either cancelled classes or moved to a fully digital delivery method. Some are extending Spring Break. Some are cancelling the semester. It follows that if students are going home early, then the first segment of the market that will feel pressure is student and student-adjacent housing.

Impacts in the current period may arise from students or parents looking to break leases early as a result of unforeseen school closures. Leasing for future periods may also be impacted as students are no longer in close proximity, making traditional on-campus marketing programs less effective.

Student housing operators will need to be prepared for the eventual questions from current students as university schedules change, causing early move-outs. Digital marketing and leasing will become more important to connect with students for future semesters, driving all aspects of the lead-to-lease process into digital channels.

Senior housing has a different set of challenges to monitor and address, given that mortality rates of COVID-19 typically increase for people over 70. Expect to see changes in community programming and a focus on reducing gatherings of people, coupled with increased focus on cleanliness in common areas.

Conventional, market rate housing: Trickle-down impacts

For conventional, market rate apartments, we must look at likely impacts on current residents as well as potential impacts on future demand.

Risk aversion is greatly reducing large gatherings of people. Governmental guidelines, conference cancellations, sporting body reactions, political rally cancellations, and changing corporate travel policies will continue to drive negative impacts on local economies. Even a coronavirus conference was cancelled due to a local outbreak.

All major sports leagues in the US have suspended play. The NCAA’s flagship event, March Madness, is now cancelled. Broadway is closed. Sporting and event venues tend to be surrounded by a cottage industry of bars and restaurants that will surely feel a disproportionate impact. We can expect a number of business to close or to furlough staff as a result.

In addition to pre and post-game meals and entertainment, impacts will be felt across transit, parking, merchandise, and in-venue vendors. Immediate impacts in the hospitality and travel sector will yield a reduction of incomes, and possibly temporary or permanent loss of employment until we return to normal operations.

If we couple this impact with a survey conducted by the First National Bank of Omaha in 2019 that indicates that nearly half of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck and more than half do not have an emergency fund, it is likely that some residents will have a hard time making their rents. Landlords should be prepared to address these situations as they emerge and not be too quick to create vacancy.

Landlords who also manage retail spaces that are reliant on event-based traffic should be prepared to address tenancy issues on that front as well.

Multifamily housing: The impact of staying home

With commercial and educational organizations sending people home, the average number of people onsite at residential properties throughout the day is sure to increase. Much like senior housing impacts, we can expect a reduction in group events. We can also expect fewer users of common areas and amenities as people stay at home.

And that phrase, “stay at home,” may be a clue to resident attitudes as the summer leasing season approaches.

If the coronavirus crisis extends beyond April, we can expect lower demand for vacant units. We can expect more folks to stay in place as economic unrest will cause people to be cautious. Staying in place may be seen in the form of higher renewal rates, at prices capped by rent control measures in some markets, or more folks going month-to-month until they have clarity in their own personal situation.

As mentioned with student housing earlier, we can expect a greater focus on digital marketing to drive demand. Self-guided tours, the trendy topic at recent industry events, will become more pervasive as prospects seek to limit person-to-person engagement. We should also see an increase in 3-D tours, drone footage and other digital mediums to drive traffic. Operationally, online leasing and electronic payments, both widely available technologies, should see increased adoption.

If we do see a drop in demand and an increase in renewal rates, there will be an unmistakable impact on pricing. This change in market dynamics will put revenue management systems and processes to the test. Largely having gained wide adoption in the last decade of continued growth, there have not been many cases of dealing with sagging demand and the impact on pricing.

Development: Supply chain impacts

In August of 2019, the NAA published an article titled “Apartment Completions Set to Spike in 2020,” which shared that there are more than 500,000 units under construction, with nearly 360k of them scheduled to deliver in 2020. It has yet to be seen if global supply chain disruption, as a result of this virus, will impact these deliveries. Materials as simple as an electrical outlet, often produced in China, could become a barrier to delivery if supply lines are disrupted. Developers should assess impacts of potential material shortages and adjust accordingly.

A disruption in delivery plans will put pressure on financing as well as planned operational benefits, creating the potential for a myriad of fiscal issues for developers, owners and operators.

Actual v budget: Expect variances

Most multifamily organizations cast their budget in the fall of 2019 and looked at 2020 as more of the same: strong demand, strong occupancy, strong pricing and a need for more capacity. A straw poll of MRI conference attendees put a potential recession in 2021 or beyond. While we may or may not have a formal recession, the impacts of this virus, if experienced for a protracted amount of time, could create recession-like conditions, undermining the assumptions used to build 2020 budgets. Reforecasting conversations will need to happen. Expectations will need to be reset and the inevitable conversations about expense reductions will likely take place.

Business continuity

Beyond the economic and fiscal dimensions of this crisis, multifamily organizations should update their business continuity plans (BCP), seek new ways to leverage technology since the BCP plan was last updated, and revisit policies in accordance with governmental guidance for health and safety.

American writer Denis Waitley once said, “Expect the best, plan for the worst, and prepare to be surprised.” Sage advice, given the current state of affairs and the uncertainty inherent in not having a clear idea of what lies ahead. Multifamily organizations should already be taking steps to assess changing conditions and plan accordingly.